• ROTA
  • 9 SORUDA
  • DİKEN ÖZEL
  • GÜNÜN 11’i
  • DİKENLİK
  • AKŞAM POSTASI
  • VPN HABER
  • ENGLISH

Diken

Yaramazlara biraz batar!

  • VİTRİN
  • AKTÜEL
  • EKONOMİ
  • ANALİZ
  • DÜNYA
  • MEDYA
  • KEYİF
  • YAZARLAR
  • SANAT
  • SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK

The plight of 128 billion dollars

18/04/2021 12:32


M. MURAT KUBİLAY

@mmkubilay

Reserves do not constitute a form of public expenditure; reserves exist without any contract declaring the purchase of goods or services. So the proposition that we could have used these reserves to get vaccinations or to benefit SMA patients is a completely false. Though such claims are intended to explain and expose the policy mistakes to the public, there is a risk of making a false claim, even while being right in principle.  

Furthermore, there is still 128 billion dollars worth of money in the safe of the TCMB (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), exchanged for the 128 billion dollars sold, but not in dollars, rather in TL. In other words, the money is in place, but in the form of domestic currency not in foreign currency.    


So what is the issue?  

Let us start with the simple fact that the TCMB is the only institution in the world that has the ability to print the Turkish Lira, which has no international equivalent. In other words, while the currency and gold stored in TCMB’s safe have a meaning, stores of TL have no such value. This is precisely why the statement “the reserves were squandered” is correct, even if the sentence “the reserves have been handed out” is not. Because the TCMB can produce Turkish Lira whenever it wishes, there is no need to waste foreign exchange reserves to achieve this end.  

So, who has purchased the currency reserves that were sold?  

Everyone!  

It is not possible to make specific and accurate distinctions; everyone who bought foreign currency from the market in the last few years, whether that be a single dollar or more, has benefited from this situation. Clearly, the deeper an individual’s pocket, the greater the extent to which one would potentially benefit. Big companies and the wealthy have of course benefited more, and it was a particular blessing for those with foreign currency debt.

So where precisely does the problem lie?  

These sales were not carried out in a transparent process, and this is where the issue lies: this is a clear irregularity. Moreover, the policy has failed to achieve its goal. Not only did we see a sharp rise in the exchange rate and interest rates; we have also endured a deterioration in public finances with the sale of billions of dollars at low prices.  

How large is the scale of the damage then?  

To calculate this, one needs to know the average selling price, and even though the TCMB confirms the sales, the prices are not made public. In 2019, the highest value of the lira to dollar exchange rate was 6.20. This means the following: the price of even the highest of those sold in 2019 was below 6.20. President Erdogan stated that the reserves were sold due to the pandemic, however the economic shock created by the pandemic started in February 2020, months later. The current dollar-lira exchange rate is 8.15, suggesting tens of billions of Turkish Lira worth of loss to the public. Moreover, if we consider that these reserves can be replaced at a much higher exchange rate in the coming period, the loss will perhaps exceed hundreds of billion TL.  

Is this all?  

Unfortunately not; negative net reserves would increase the country’s risk of failing to serve its foreign debt and pay for its imports in the face of a shock in global financial markets. It is not an easy task to predict what the future will bring. If we experience a situation such as a war, embargo or sanctions, we may not be able to make transactions such as international payments and purchase of weapons. Clearly, net reserves that have dropped to minus 50 billion dollars pose an indisputable national security risk.   

Why has the government responded so firmly and harshly in response to the calls for the whereabouts of the 128 billion dollars?  

There are two main reasons for this reaction.  

The first is that they know they are completely in the wrong, and the second is that it is easy to prove this fact.  

The transaction records of the banks must be kept hidden for five years, while those by the TCMB and the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) must be hidden  permanently. There are not only electronic but also physically signed copies of the documented instructions which contain the details of these transactions. For this reason, it is easy to determine the total volume of sales, the exact price of the sales, and the people who gave the order – with a quick investigation after a change in power. In summary, it is not possible to cover up this issue if it is investigated. All that is required is the prevalence of the rule of law. After a power change, the biggest fear of the incumbent government will be the investigation of the TCMB reserves. Legally, the prime candidates responsible for these sales are Murat Çetinkaya and Murat Uysal, the heads of the TCMB at the time.   

And of course President Erdogan has confirmed that everything takes place with his knowledge and approval. Berat Albayrak stands to be the missing link in this equation. Let us emphasise once again that the potential national security risks posited by this situation may yield completely unprecedented consequences. In short, the subject of the TCMB reserves is truly the Achilles heel of those currently in power.  

To end this piece, purely for the sake of general knowledge, let me share some information that is completely unrelated to this subject: In the 1920s, America’s biggest gangster, Al Capone, was jailed for tax evasion. That is to say, not for countless criminal acts, but due to a (relatively) minor crime that is straightforward to document…  

Translated by Gülce Naz Özkan

The full Turkish version

Filed Under: English

SON HABERLER

Türkiye demokrasisinde siyasetçilerin halktan uzaklaşmaması mümkün mü?

MURAT SEVİNÇ Tarhan Erdem’in anısına… Türkiye’de siyasetçilere … Devamı...

RTÜK’ün talebiyle: Amerika’nın Sesi ve DW erişime engellendi!

'İnternet yayın lisansı' almadıkları gerekçesiyle, ABD merkezli Voice of … Devamı...

Profesörden maymun çiçeği uyarısı: Döküntü görünce direkt başvurun

MESUDE ERŞAN @mesudersan [email protected] Türkiye maymun … Devamı...

Onur Yürüyüşü’nde taciz: Kadınlardan, polis amirinin soruşturulması için kampanya

Kadın örgütleri, Onur Yürüyüşü'nde bir yurttaşı gülerek taciz ettiği … Devamı...

Ankara’daki sağanak nedeniyle bir kişi öldü, kayıp bir kişi ise aranıyor

Ankara'daki sağanak sonrası su baskınında Keçiören'de ikamet eden Busenur … Devamı...

Tecavüz sanığı erkek, 12 yıl hapis cezası alıp serbest bırakıldı

Muğla’nın Datça ilçesinde 25 yaşındaki G.K. isimli kadına tecavüz ettiği … Devamı...

Ek gösterge ve öğrenci affına ilişkin teklif komisyondan geçti

Ek gösterge ve öğrenci affı düzenlemesini de içeren ekonomiye ilişkin … Devamı...

Putin kendisiyle dalga geçen liderlere yanıt verdi: Altsız da üstsüz de iğrenç görünürler

Rusya Devlet Başkanı Vladimir Putin 'maço, üstsüz' pozlarıyla dalga geçen … Devamı...

Akşam Postası / 30 Haziran 2022

Kemal Kurkut’un öldürülme anını fotoğraflayan gazeteciye hapis … Devamı...

Dikkat, plajlarımız koruma altındaki caretta caretta kaplumbağalarının üreme alanıdır!

Mersin'de polis ekipleri, deniz kaplumbağalarının yumurta bıraktığı Kazanlı … Devamı...

There is no application for this either
There is no app for this

Ara

DİKEN’İ TAKİP EDİN

Osman Kavala 1703 gündür hapiste

YAZARLAR

AKP neden oy kaybediyor?

İhsan Dağı

Cüneyt Arkın’ın ardından: Baş ucundaki ekmeğe bakarak uyumak

Azime Acar

Başka bir Cüneyt Arkın: Oğlum, İkinci Yenicilerle düştük kalktık biz gençliğimizde

Mustafa Dağıstanlı

Aradığınız motivasyona ulaşılamıyor

Psk. Dr. Feyza Bayraktar

Selamünaleyküm asker, aleykümselam bin Selman

Bahadır Kaynak

Rahmet dilemek, tarikatsız yapamamak ve siyasetçi olmak…

Murat Sevinç

Tarikat lideri ve ikiyüzlü siyaset

Levent Gültekin

GÜNÜN 11’İ

Kürşad Zorlu: Zirve öncesinde seslendirilen adımların atılabileceği ihtimali hayli düşük

Zeynep Gürcanlı: Rumların NATO’ya üyeliği için Ankara’ya baskı beklemek yanlış olmaz

Barış Terkoğlu: AKP cemaatleri sahipsiz bırakmak istemiyor

Akif Beki: Zafer elde ettiysek niye heyetimizin yüzüne vurmuyordu?

Ali Bayramoğlu: Kürt oyları kime?

Orhan Uğuroğlu: Erdoğan diplomasi-akrobasi anlayışıyla Amerika’ya itaat etti

Can Ataklı: Görev Bahçeli’ye düşüyor

Ege Cansen: Piyasa aktörleri yan yollara sapar

Yusuf Karadaş: Erdoğan kazandı mı ya da aslında kim kazandı?

Yılmaz Özdil: Türkiye’ye bilinçli olarak yıllardır bunu yapıyorlar

Fikri Sağlar: İkircikli davranış ülkeye zarar veriyor!

Atık maddelerle balık heykeli yaptılar

Bir dahaki sefere unutkanlığınız nedeniyle kendinize kızmadan önce tenisçi Humbert’i düşünün

Düşen leylek yavrusunu itfaiye ekibi yuvasına bıraktı

Kadın rektörden kadın personele: Kısa etek, açık yaka, yırtmaç, kot, tayt, askılı bluz giymeyin

Cameron Diaz Netflix’le dönüyor

‘Friends’in yaratıcısından 4 milyon dolarlık özür

O artık ‘Profesör Banksy’

New York parkında keçilerin ot mesaisi başladı

Tamire götürülen kanepeden altın çıktı

  • VİTRİN
  • AKTÜEL
  • EKONOMİ
  • ANALİZ
  • DÜNYA
  • MEDYA
  • KEYİF
  • YAZARLAR
  • SANAT
  • SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK
  • AGORA
  • DİKEN’E TAKILANLAR
  • BİRİNCİ SAYFALAR
  • GÜNÜN 11’i
  • AKŞAM POSTASI
  • BU GAZETE…
  • DİKEN 5 YAŞINDA
  • KÜNYE
  • İLETİŞİM
  • E-mail
  • Facebook
  • Google+
  • Pinterest
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • Vimeo
  • YouTube

"Genç gazeteci arkadaşlarıma! Bu meslek yorucu bir meslektir. Ama, insan büyük bir zevkle çalışır. Kalemine daima efendi kal, uşak olmamaya gayret et. Mecbur kalırsan kır, sakın satma." Sedat Simavi